By John Sage Melbourne
Mayhem is not harmful until it starts to look orderly.
Everybody is searching for the magic formula. It does not exist. The world of money is one of chaos and the only patterns are the very same that exist in the froth of the ocean. This axiom is perhaps the most essential of all and is the essential to ending up being a better speculator that the most knowledgeable and skilled experts.The majority of get rich authors are selling the illusion of order as this is what offers. Any get rich technique can work when you are fortunate,and most of the stories being sold are not based on a noise,ongoing system that works and can be duplicated. They are sold on the luck that the author has actually experienced. The formula that worked in 2015 is not guaranteed to work this year.
Minor Axiom V: Beware the Historian’s Trap
About 99% of the population believes that history repeats itself. History may repeat itself,however the vast bulk of the time it does not. Suppose occasion A was followed by occasion B in the past. Next time that occasion A comes around,there is absolutely no reason to assume that occasion B is about to follow.The market makes no predictions of itself and uses no magic formula to anticipate itself.
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Minor Axiom VI: Beware the Chartist’s illusion
The incorrect property of the chartist is that he understands that the market can be anticipated if he can simply find out the pattern. The fact is the easiest of all explanations: the market has no patterns.A part of the chartist’s illusion is the trend line,constantly attracted retrospection,which purports to reveal order in what is basically a random and disorganised time sequence of prices.Fund managers and sales people use this seeming order of trend,generally up,as a so called projection tool. This is simply the basis of deception.
Minor Axiom VIIBeware the Connection and Causality Delusions
Over and again people see cause and result correlations in the share market and even generate income on their predictions. The correlations that they see remain in reality not based on anything other than a passing association or most likely either deception or luck.The human mind tries to find order in the chaos,however this order is not offered in the genuine market place.Speculative techniqueBeware of seeing order where it does not exist. This does not suggest that you can not discover a excellent bet or an helpful investment,however keep in mind that the overwhelming influence of random probability. (Gunther does not use the term “random probability” however rather talks of “luck”).You are constantly handling chaos and needs to be all set to respond when ever what ever is going to occur,takes place.
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